marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1225 am EST Fri 5 Dec 2008

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Summary...a cold front crossing nt1 and NW nt2 ovrngt is still expected to stall ovr the se part of the nt2 wtrs by Fri ngt. A pair of low pres areas will form on the front and track NE Fri ngt into Sat. The lows are expected intensify and consolidate by sun nr Georges Bank. The low will move toward the Canadian Maritimes sun ngt into Mon as high pres slides E from the Midwest and grt lks. This high will cross the region lt Mon into early Tue. The next wx system will approach the area from the W later Tue.

Models...in gnrl we will accept the 00z GFS mdl output for much of this fcst package as it has good support from the 00z UKMET and 00z Canadian Gem. By 72hrs or 00z Mon we will tend to consolidate the low more than what is depicted by the 00z GFS... or closer to the 00z UKMET/Gem/12z ECMWF mdls...and also as is shown by the non-GFS mdls...believe the more consolidated low will be deeper than the GFS guid by sun ngt. Improving conditions are still lkly for late Mon into Tue...as is shown by most of the mdls. The next low pres/cold frontal system will approach from the W late Tue/Wed. The 00z GFS is a tad wkr with the pres grad lt Tue vs the prev few runs. We will...for now...leave the stronger southerly bl winds that were fcst in the prev package and cont to evaluate future mdl runs ovr the next few days... as it still seems psbl that these stronger gale force winds could dvlp by ltr Tue.

Headlines...only minor adjustments are anticipated from the prev fcst for this package. We will keep gales going late Sat ngt between balt cany and Cape Fear...and maintain gales for all wtrs N of cp fear on sun. Storm force bl winds could dvlp nr the low as it intensifies nr Georges Bank later sun. For now...it appears as if the best chance for storm will hold just to the E of the wtrs. Otw...gales will linger into Mon from balt cany northward. Gales for late Tue will be left in the opc morning fcst for now between cp fear and the S of new engl wtrs...with confidence lvls remaining quite low...as the gales may be delayed until Tue ngt or Wed.

Seas...for the most part we will remain close to the 00z mww3 version of the wave watch iii model...except to cont to gnrly add a couple ft to its output espec in the gale wng areas.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:

.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...gale late sun into Mon...MDT confdc. .Georges Bank...Gale late sun into Mon...MDT confdc. .S of New England...Gale sun into Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson to balt cnyn...gale sun into Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hague line...Gale Sat ngt into Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...Gale Sat ngt into Mon...MDT confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...Gale Sat ngt into sun...low confdc. Gale Tue...low confdc. .Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster Mills. Ocean forecast branch.